I am very much loathe to posting about today’s Iowa caucus (and using the expression “to be loathe to”) as it seems like I’m just not covering any angles that aren’t already being covered.
Truth be told, I don’t know what to expect come the end of caucusing this evening. Polls have numbers everywhere, with the latest from CSPAN/ZOGBY having Obama sitting at 31%, Edwards at 27%, and HRC at 24%, with no other candidate in double digits. Those three candidates assume 82% of the polling – the other 18% belong to the remaining Bill Richardsons, Chris Dodds, Joe Bidens, Mike Gravels, and Dennis Kuciniches of the Democratic presidential race. I’m not sure how big those remaining 18% will be, as one must recall Iowa’s 15% rule. What is the 15% rule? Any candidate not receiving 15% of caucus votes must release their supporters to either no longer vote or allow them to caucus with others. (At least that’s how I’ve understood the rule… I may be mistaken.)
Will Kucinich’s 2% help Obama’s 31% when it becomes very apparent that Kucinich’s instructions to his supporters – that they are to caucus for Obama should he (Kucinich) not garner the 15% necessary to stay in the game – will take effect?
I don’t know. The race is effectively a three-way one and my only concern is by how much HRC will finish in 3rd place, as in mind there seems to be no escaping that fate. HRC’s campaign seems to have slowly declined since HRC developed a heavy case of foot-in-mouth. BUT it’s important to remember that in all likelihood, should Richardson not hit 15%, his caucus-goers will be caucusing with the Clintonistas.
Maybe a 2nd-place finish for HRC is in order. Again, I’m not sure.
Iowans: caucus early and caucus often.