Important things to note:
Democrat Take-Away in Ohio Governor: In an election for Governor of Ohio today, 9/21/2006, Democrat Ted Strickland defeats Republican Ken Blackwell, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. Strickland, currently representing Ohio’s 6th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, gets 56%. Blackwell, currently Ohio Secretary of State, gets 35%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 8/8/06, Strickland is down a statistically insignificant 1 point, Blackwell is unchanged. In sum: no movement. 24% of Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat Strickland; only 5% of Democrats cross-over and vote for the Republican Blackwell. Independents break 5:2 for Strickland. Conservatives vote for Blackwell by 36 points, but Strickland leads among moderates by 37 points. Strickland leads by 14 points among men, by 28 points among women. Incumbent Republican Governor Bob Taft is term-limited. The seat is open. The election is in 47 days, on 11/7/2006.
What I’m reading: Blackwell won’t hold the broad Republican base, but will easily hold his solidly conservative end of the ring. Strickland’s lead among moderates and independents is insurmountable. Lesson: Don’t be Ken Blackwell on 11/7/06. Surprises? More women would vote from Libertarian candidate Fitrakis than men (3% vs 2%).
Democrat Take-Away in Ohio U.S. Senate: In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 9/21/2006, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats incumbent Republican Mike DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. Brown, who represents Ohio’s 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 52% to 42% in a vote today. There has been no significant movement in this race. In June Brown led DeWine by 9 points; in August by 8 points; today by 10 points. The two candidates are tied among male voters. Brown leads by 19 points among female voters. DeWine holds 80% of his Republican base. Brown holds 86% of his Democrat base. Brown leads by 27 points among Independents, up from a 15-point lead on 8/8/06. Republican DeWine leads by 60 points among Conservatives. Democrat Brown leads by 81 points among Liberals. Among Moderates, Democrat Brown leads 2:1. DeWine wins in Western OH. Brown wins in Central and Eastern OH. The election is on 11/7/2006. DeWine was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. Brown was first elected to Congress in 1992.
What I’m reading: Since the start of the race, Representative Brown has made significant inroads among independents and moderates, as both candidates easily hold much of their party base. Brown has made gradual improvement since the start of the year and with the election now less than two months away, it appears very difficult for DeWine to hold the seat.
Graphs provided by SurveyUSA